Baku, November 2, AZERTAC
OPEC's oil output is likely to set another record high in October, a Reuters survey found on Monday, as Nigerian and Libyan output partially recovered from disruptions and Iraq boosted exports, according to Reuters.
The rise in output could add to skepticism about OPEC's ability to finalize a plan agreed in September to limit supplies. Oil LCOc1, which rallied to a 2016 high near $54 a barrel following the decision, has since slipped towards $48.
Supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has risen to 33.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in October from a revised 33.69 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources.
That would be 820,000 bpd above the top end of a target output range OPEC agreed to adopt at a Sept. 28 meeting. According to analysts, production near 34 million bpd would prolong the supply surplus weighing on the market.
"With OPEC production creeping up towards 34 million barrels a day, a production freeze guarantees that the oil market will remain out of balance throughout 2017 and into 2018," said David Hufton of oil broker PVM.
Supply has risen since OPEC in 2014 dropped its historic role of fixing output to prop up prices as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran pumped more. Production has also climbed due to the return of Indonesia in 2015 and Gabon in July as members.
October's supply from OPEC excluding Gabon and Indonesia, at 32.88 million bpd, is the highest in Reuters survey records starting in 1997.
In October, the increase was led by Nigeria, Libya and Iraq.