Baku, January 11 (AZERTAC). The Moscow-based Armenian news agency REGNUM has published an article by lobbyist of the Armenian Foreign Ministry Vladimir Kazimirov posing the question "Will there be a new Nagorno-Karabakh campaign?” (Http://regnum.ru/news/polit/1610724.html).
This time instead of a comprehensive reply, the author will get a short quote-by-quote response to his article.
"Is Baku actually ready to plunge into the abyss of a new carnage?"
Yes, it is.
"What induces it, and what hinders?"
It is impelled by the same factor as that of the people's militia led by commoner Kozma Minin and Prince Dmitry Pozharsky, guerrilla groups of Denis Davydov, Alexander Seslavin, Alexander Figner, Alexei Fedorov, Alexander Saburov, Sidor Kovpak, millions of Russian and Soviet soldiers: the concept of homeland. What hampers it? Nothing by now.
“Does the international community have enough means of containment?”
It has always had - both when Armenia occupied Azerbaijani territory, and today, when Azerbaijan is ready to put an end to this. But it [the international community] simply had no desire - either then or now.
"It has long been known that one of the main causes of mutually exclusive positions on Karabakh problem, protracted and unproductive negotiations is deep mutual distrust of the parties, with the possibility of the resumption of war only exacerbating the situation."
It`s not so. Do you believe that mutually exclusive positions will miraculously disappear once trust is built? There is another reason behind mutually exclusive positions of the parties. Armenia wants to grab Karabakh without giving anything own in return (i.e. part of its own territory), and Azerbaijan wants to return Karabakh. The positions are really mutually exclusive, and they will not change whether there is no trust or there is.
"Miscalculations of the 1991-1994 war will for long psychologically oppress the Azerbaijani leadership. After all, the potential of Azerbaijan was obviously bigger than that of Armenia at that time - the secret is in its realization."
Was it really "bigger"? Today, the gap between the forces of the parties is much deeper than before. At that time the forces were relatively equal. Yes, Armenians had captured tanks. But the cause of failure is different, which is the subject of another discussion.
"Azerbaijanis are annoyed by the occupation of seven regions by Armenians, it gives them a number of the primary motivations, but Armenians have a much stronger stimulus for struggling for survival."
This "stimulus" was somehow little noticeable in the summer of 1992 when Armenians literally fled leaving the weapons. By the way, Azerbaijanis also captured enough military equipment. Kazimirov should visit the Azerbaijani soldiers and talk to them, and then he would discover much interesting, in particular, the "stimulus" of the Armenian side, as well as a lot of trophies.
As for the "survival", the Karabakh Armenians can quite successfully "survive" in Armenia, just as the Azerbaijani population of Armenia "survives" in Azerbaijan at present.
"Overcoming the defense line fortified by Armenians around Karabakh would require a lot of time and victims. Access to the mountains will cause new obstacles. Baku can not reckon on the blitzkrieg."
It's true - our path is not strewn with flowers. We'll have to dig out the Augean stables.
"... That gives enough time for active international intervention."
We shall see. But for some reason there was no interference when the Azerbaijani population of Nagorno-Karabakh was massacred, and the fighting continued for two years. We did not see any "blue helmets" in the war zone then.
"In an international context, no matter with how tricks the resumption of hostilities will be justified, the guilt of Baku would be undoubted."
Really? The guilt of Baku in liberation of its territories will be the same as the guilt of the Red Army in launching counteroffensive around Moscow and Stalingrad.
"The main argument of Baku - the occupation of Azerbaijan’s regions - has long been devalued: the spread of the occupation is a direct consequence of the fact that the Baku leadership protracted the war in vain pursuit of victory. This origin of the occupation is not only recognized by those who do not want to recognize it."
Are you joking, Vladimir Nikolayevich? The origin of the occupation is caused by Armenia’s intention to seize the territory of Azerbaijan, not by Azerbaijan’s aspiration to prevent this.
"The return of the territories is retarded by Baku`s unwillingness to guarantee peace to Karabakh".
Baku can guarantee peace to Armenia after the voluntary release of all the occupied territories - Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions. Baku can not guarantee anything to Karabakh because it can not guarantee anything to itself. It's like that Stalin gives a "guarantee of peace" to the occupied part of the Soviet Union.
“Let us not forget that the truce on May 12, 1994, has been issued with no fixed term on default, that is, it remains in force to this day."
Is that really so? And why “on default” should not be interpreted in favor of other side? Similarly, Baku may reply that the lack of the word "unlimited" in the text of the treaty means unperpetuity.
"There is a conflict waiting for its settlement even longer (Cyprus - since 1974)."
The patience of Cypriots is not a model for us.
"The collapse of the truce will be condemned by many states."
No sharper than the failure of the peace at the end of 1987 when the conflict began, and the fact of the 20-year long occupation itself.
"Many other facts will also be added to the list of condemnations: persistent refusal of Baku to withdraw the troops from the contact line ..."
And add to this Armenia`s stubborn refusal to withdraw the troops from the Azerbaijani territory, as it is required by numerous resolutions of the United Nations, the Council of Europe, European Union, NATO, appeals of the national parliaments, and many other documents…
“…To conclude an agreement on non-use of force in resolving the conflict ..."
Azerbaijan backs this! But the use of force (and its consequences) should not be declared illegal "from now on" when force was already applied. It should be declared illegal "until now." And the occupation as a result of the unlawful use of force must be stopped. Let’s just compare: Hitler occupies half of the USSR, and then offers Stalin to conclude a treaty on non-use of force to solve the German-Soviet conflict. And in addition he starts a policy of moving Germans into the occupied part of the Soviet Union. It`s proper. Isn`t it?
No peace is possible in the middle of war, but it is possible after the elimination of its consequences. We should not just stop littering, but also clean up after ourselves! Occupation is the rubbish, which emerged as a result of illegal pollution. Why should we explain the very obvious things? Are Azerbaijanis indeed considered so naive that they want to cheat them like “oafs”?
I repeat, Azerbaijan backs the idea of the non-use of force! Let Armenia withdraw its troops from the occupied territories, and then there will be no need for the use of force, since the conflict will not exist any more.
"Withdraw snipers from the frontline ..."
Why, for example, not the troops? And not only from the frontline, but outside the border?
"Investigate incidents ..."
Including the destruction of the civilian population of the whole city, the fact which is denied by the Armenian leadership and its minions?
"They will also add a well-known gaffe of Ilham Aliyev’s team related to the glorification of Safarov.”
As well as glorification of vile murderers and terrorists Gurgen Yanikian, Varuzhan Garabedian, Ampik Sassounian, Monte Melkonian, the Nazi generals Garegin Nzhdeh, Drastamat Kanayan in Armenia. Go on, Vladimir Nikolayevich, go on. You certainly have the relatives who have heroically passed away during the Great Patriotic War. So be aware that monuments to these two Nazi cut-throats were erected in Armenia, and even the medal "Garegin Nzhdeh" were established there. There are no medals dedicated to Ramil Safarov in Azerbaijan, and no street has been named after him. So, go on.
"The unfavorable background will take shape for Azerbaijan in international organizations as well."
The Azerbaijani people will liberate their lands not from the "unfavourable background in international organizations," but from the enemy army. Somehow we will endure this background, since Armenia has endured the condemnation of the occupation.
"The peacemaking role of the OSCE will be almost rejected"
It has long been rejected, rather self-rejected, due to the complete impotence of mediators to change the status quo.
"The co-chairmen of the Minsk Group will inevitably condemn the resumption of hostilities."
They should not condemn the resumption of hostilities, they should condemn the ongoing occupation as the root cause of renewed hostilities.
"The sharpest response may come from Moscow, which promoted a truce in 1994 with the assistance of the CIS Council of Heads of State."
Let's not read tea leaves.
"The obligation of Azerbaijan as a member of the Council of Europe to resolve the conflict by peaceful means will be disrupted."
The obligation of Armenia as a member of the Council of Europe to respect and implement the resolutions of this organization, in particular, resolution 1416 of PACE has long been frustrated. Read items 1 and 2 of this resolution.
“Baku`s refusal to fulfill the resolutions of the UN Security Council in 1993-1994 related to suspension of military operations will also be remembered.”
We have heard this fairy tale fro 20 times, and have for 20 times unmasked it. It is political pygmies such as Shavarsh Kocharyan and Eduard Sharmazanov who recall and refer to this fairy tale. But it`s not accepted in the world, Vladimir Nikolayevich. It`s not accepted. It`s high time you also renounced it.
"A new UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire is quite probable.”
Armenia has been successfully ignoring four resolutions! And it`s still alive.
"As a result, superpowers and international organizations will force Baku to wind up the attack."
And will this pressure be made when Baku carries out military operations to liberate its own territory? For some reason we didn`t see any pressure on Armenia when it invaded someone else`s lands.
"This turn of events will be painful for Azerbaijan"
If the Azerbaijani people have developed immunity to pain during the 20-year long occupation of its territory, then it will somehow stand to other painful twists of fate.
"The ruling clan of Ilham Aliyev, which is prospering thanks to oil and gas revenues, doesn`t want to exchange business boom to a failure, and even interruptions in the supply of hydrocarbons with possible temporary loss of markets."
We repeat: the people of Azerbaijan do not need the land to produce oil, they need oil to return the territories. Oil sells well, but the land is not for sale! The Azerbaijani people presented enough of their lands to the Armenians. Azerbaijan will restore the actual sovereignty over Karabakh.
"The bellicose rhetoric of Baku is deception of its own people."
If the release of the occupied part of the country targeted by the "bellicose rhetoric" is "deception of its own people," then, as a poem goes "it is easy to deceive [the people], [the people] will be happy to be deceived". Let them "deceive us" and return our homeland. We will be happy of such a "deception."
"This is not a complete list of puzzles for Baku to investigate before taking a decision on a new campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh."
Thank you. We will investigate.
"There are millions of Armenians and Azerbaijanis living in Russia so it will not remain indifferent to new massacres between the two nations. This is undoubtedly."
Russia has always - at least during the World War I - been home to large numbers of Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Nothing new has happened over these years. Moreover, there has never been “Karabakh” among members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, just like there have never been any Russian peacekeepers or Russian citizens here for repeating a Southern-Ossetia scenario.
“A question arises ‘Why cannot the OSCE Chairman-in-Office openly voice - to Baku -his support of the idea of reaching agreement on the non-use of force in settlement of this conflict…”
We have already discussed this subject above. Baku completely stands for the idea to announce the use of force illegal. But we should prohibit the use of force not after the occupation, but prior to it or after its termination. No one has the right to occupy the territory, and then demand the non-use of force.
"It`s not enough to say that there is no military solution for this conflict - the emphasis should be made on inadmissibility of war. Excessive political correctness may cost both peoples a lot."
That’s right! Inadmissibility of the war in principle, but not in the middle of the unresolved conflict! And inadmissibility of legitimization of the results of the war, as it is an illegal action. This can happen only after the restoration of state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which is recognized by the whole world, including Russia. A military solution always exists (as yet no one could deny the war in the history of mankind), but we`re not going to discuss it now.
"The co-chairmen of the Minsk Group could openly make a joint statement, beforehand, in case of a new major incident, particularly renewed hostilities, with the aim of immediately giving it to the guilty party. Each of the three superpowers would give it the same statement in a bilateral manner too, stressing the importance of their joint campaign. "
It is high time to prepare such a document and hand it over to the invader country. Azerbaijan is not an invader.
"The very willingness of the co-chairs for a steep turn of events in Karabakh will make hot heads to weigh the consequences of their actions afoot. It is extremely important not to delay the preparation of the documents and to be proactive."
What a wonderful offer! It is high time for the co-chairmen to forestall and present such a document to Armenia, demanding the adoption of the updated Madrid principles, at least as an ultimatum.
"An important role could be played by a wide acquaintance with the aforementioned list of Azerbaijan’s faults aimed at the possible resumption of hostilities."
Azerbaijan has studied the causes of the first war in detail, and will not repeat the same mistakes again. This time, no internal squabbles will make separate groups of individual commanders to leave their positions and rush to Baku to take power, exposing the front for a smooth attack on defenseless towns and villages. This will not happen. So, Vladimir Nikolayevich, we have learnt a lesson from the last war. This time we will fight not to survive, but to destroy the enemy. Even at the cost of our own lives. You probably have had false stereotypes after the first war. And for whom Karabakh is the motherland, for Armenians or Azerbaijanis, you will know this time. So we wish you strong health so that you live till that day and see everything with your own eyes.
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