The “Association for Civil Society Development in Azerbaijan” is presenting to the mass media the results of the national public opinion poll entitled “The Civil Society and 365 Days of Ilham Aliyev’s Presidency.” This poll is a conceptual sociological survey in Azerbaijan carried out in compliance with scientific and international standards.

The initiator of such a sociological survey was the non-governmental organization “Azerbaijan Free Speech Foundation” chaired by Musa Yagub, a well-known poet and public activist. The “Free Speech Foundation” is a member of the “Association for Civil Society Development in Azerbaijan”. The initiative of a sociological survey was backed by 8 non-governmental organizations - members of the Association. The implementation of fundamental sociological surveys is a novelty for Azerbaijan, therefore, a decision had been reached to invite foreign consultants into the country to assist in the undertaking. The Association maintains smooth-running partner relations with Bulgarian experts, Doctor of Philosophy Vasily Georgiyevich Ilchev, and Ilya Todorovich Bozhinov. These experts assisted the local sociologists in methodology matters, preparation of the questionnaires, conducting the poll itself, and in processing the results.

The survey’s methodological parameters are based on modern techniques of polling. The registration method was applied, that is the respondent answered the 52 questions personally and at their homes. The poll embraced the whole country and was carried out in all of the 125 (124) polling districts, in 247 polling stations (out of all the 5146 stations). The age (18 years and over), place of residence, gender and other factors were taken in consideration. In the aggregate, 1496 people took part in the poll. The respondents’ identification was handled at the same polling station where they voted in October last year. One percent given in the poll result corresponds to 54127 respondents’ opinion. The average admissible statistics deviations make up +/-2.7 %.

Here are a few most interesting results of the sociological poll. Thus, in answer to question “Were the 15 October 2003 presidential elections conducted correctly and fairly”, the overwhelming majority (71.6) responded positively. Moreover, 13.8% of the poll participants believed that on the whole the elections had been carried out correctly and fairly. Only 10% of the respondents answered that the elections had been conducted wrongly and unfairly.

The results of the sociological poll practically fully coincide with the last year election results. Thus, in answer to question “who did you vote for in the last presidential elections”, 71.41% of the respondents mentioned Ilham Aliyev. Taking into account the respondents who did not vote in the last year elections, the number in fact makes up 86,8% of all the votes. The statistics for the other candidates is as follows: Isa Gambar - 6.14%, Etibar Mamedov - 2.56%, Lala Shovket - 1.82%.

Along with that, the sociological survey shows that the trust in Ilham Aliyev has grown in one year of his presidency. Thus, 79.3% of the respondents positively answered the question “if presidential elections were to be carried now (say, next week), would you vote for Ilham Aliyev?” According to the sociological poll results, the priority among the outstanding issues is taken by the Karabakh conflict - 85.49%; unemployment - 74.83%, poverty - 42.74%, low salaries - 31.42%, refugee problem - 26.76%.

It is an interesting fact that 68.81% of the respondents are confident that during his presidency Ilham Aliyev has been able to demonstrate himself as a strong political leader and not just as the son of Heydar Aliyev. Along with that opinion, 17% of the socio poll participants see Ilham Aliyev both as the son of Heydar Aliyev and an established political leader. Therefore, in sum, 85.81% of the respondents consider Ilham Aliyev a fully established political leader.

Practically, the overwhelming majority of the poll participants - 77.54% consider Ilham Aliyev to be a person fully worthy of trust. 10.64% think he is partly worthy of trust.

Remarkably, the people trust the institution of presidency and personally Ilham Aliyev much more than they trust other structures or political leaders. The trust in the institution of presidency makes up 85.9%. In comparison, the Cabinet of Ministers, the Milli Majlis and the political opposition gained 62.78, 57.63 and 28 percent respectively. In a capacity of a political leader Ilham Aliyev has collected the best results - 87.19%, as compared to Ramiz Mehdiyev - 44.07%, Lala Shovket - 28.14%, Ali Kerimli - 20.54%, Isa Gambar - 16.34%, Etibar Mamedov - 15.19%, Rasul Guliyev - 9.69%.

An approximately similar result was shown in the 5 point survey. This scale evaluated the activities of the institution of presidency at 4.3 points, the Cabinet of Ministers’ at 3.3 points, the Parliament’s at 3.1 points and the political opposition’s at 2.5 points. As a political leader, Ilham Aliyev collected 4.4 points out of 5. the closest to him is Ramiz Mehdiyev - 2.9 points, and Lala Shovket - 2.4 points.

It must be mentioned here that the high level of the people’s trust lays an additional load of the president’s shoulders. Thus, 76.47% of the respondents believe that the president is responsible for the administration’s mistakes. At the same time, the amount of trust in the president is vast - 86.83% of the poll participants believe that only the president is able to resolve the outstanding problems. In comparison, 39.95% and 23.50% of the poll participants think that the problems may be handled correspondingly by the government and the parliament.

All of the above is just part of the encompassing sociological survey. You can read about the complete version of the poll results by visiting the websites of the non-governmental organizations - members of the Association. We also intend in the nearest future to conduct a through analysis of the poll results and various existing tendencies involving sociologists, political experts and economists. This survey will be published in a separate bulletin very soon.

It is of utmost importance that such sociological surveys take place. This is the way to reveal the frame of mind and the vital problems of the country’s citizens, their hopes as well as the situation around various spheres - economy, politics, public life, etc. Such surveys help maintain a permanent connection between the authorities and the population. They allow the government to be abreast of their people. Armed with the results of such surveys on different matters the government may be able to make correct decisions. The political leader may have a chance to assess their public ratings and to understand the reasons for their growth or falls. Considering the above, and for the sake of the civil society boosting in the country, the “Association for the Development of Civil Society in Azerbaijan” plans to conduct sociological surveys on a larger number of issues.