US economists expect recession in 2020 or 2021: Survey

Baku, August 20, AZERTAC

A majority of economists expect a recession in the United States within the next two years but have pushed back the onset amid Federal Reserve actions, according to a new survey, Al Jazeera reported.

The survey came out on Monday after President Donald Trump dismissed talk of a looming recession amid a slew of US data reports last week showing a mixed picture on the economy.

"I'm prepared for everything. I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well. Our consumers are rich," Trump told reporters on Sunday.

"I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money. They're buying. I saw the Walmart numbers, they were through the roof," he said.

"And most economists actually say we're not going to have a recession. But the rest of the world is not doing well like we're doing."

Larry Kudlow, Trump's chief economic adviser, has also downplayed talk of a recession. "I sure don't see a recession," he told NBC's Meet the Press programme on Sunday.

"Consumers are working at higher wages. They are spending at a rapid pace. They're actually saving also while they're spending ... So I think actually the second half, the economy's going to be very good in 2019," he said.

The National Association for Business Economists (NABE) found far fewer experts now think the next recession will start this year compared with respondents to an earlier survey in February.

NABE conducted its policy poll as Trump put the Fed under constant attack, demanding more stimulus, but before the central bank cut the benchmark lending rate on July 31.

However, the Fed was already sending strong signals that it intended to pull back on the rate increases made in 2018 due to concerns starting to dog the economic outlook, including the trade war with China.

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