Baku, August 24, AZERTAC

The planned negotiations between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin will determine the fate of both the Black Sea Grain Initiative and potential peace talks on Ukraine, TASS reported citing a Turkish expert.

Earlier, NTV television quoted Turkish presidential officials as saying that a meeting between the Russian and Turkish leaders may take place in Russia in September.

"It’s quite obvious that reviving the grain deal will be a priority at the two presidents’ meeting," said Huseyin Bagci, president of Turkey’s Foreign Policy Institute. "It is obvious, too, that Erdogan will advocate for restoring the Black Sea corridor in its previous format, which is the safest and most economically viable. And there is almost no alternative to it. Grain deal agreements will inevitably take the two leaders to a potential peace in Ukraine and to negotiations, in particular. For dialogue is inevitable. And the sooner Russia and Ukraine sit down at the negotiating table, the fewer consequences this conflict will cause to the two countries and the entire region," the expert added.

According to Bagci, securing Russia’s return to the grain deal will largely depend on whether the country's demands have been fulfilled. "For its part, Turkey has been making efforts to convince the United Nations and Western countries that it is necessary to observe Russia’s terms. Now, it’s up to them," said Bagci, who specializes in European security issues.

On August 3, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the venue and exact date of a meeting between the two presidents would be coordinated through diplomatic channels. A day earlier, Peskov said that, "the venue of the meeting will be negotiated, and it will not necessarily be Turkey." Putin has said that the times require him to be in Russia, and thus it is difficult for him to make any foreign visits, Peskov added.

The Black Sea Initiative grain deal, based on a set of agreements concluded in Istanbul in July 2022 to facilitate the safe passage of vessels carrying Ukrainian grain as well as exports of Russian agricultural products, was terminated on July 17 at Moscow’s initiative. Russia notified Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations of its objections to extending the deal after July 18. Putin said earlier that Moscow’s insistence on the lifting of illegitimate obstacles to supplies of Russian grain and fertilizers to world markets, as provided for under the Istanbul agreements, had been ignored and the Russian provisions of the deal had never been implemented, despite UN efforts, because the West never intended to honor its part of the deal. The Russian leader has also repeatedly said that, although the Istanbul agreements were intended to ensure food security for the neediest countries, including in Africa, the bulk of Ukraine’s grain actually went to wealthy Western countries. Nevertheless, Moscow said it would be ready to resume active participation in the grain deal, but only under the condition that all of the original provisions allowing for Russian agricultural exports are fulfilled.