WORLD
Oil price at $70 a barrel would likely trigger cut in OPEC output ceiling
OPEC would likely act to curtail the slide in oil prices once crude hits $70 a barrel, officials of the organization signaled Thursday.
Some officials of the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries met informally this week, ahead of a full OPEC meeting on Nov. 27, facing the lowest oil prices in at least four years.
Prices have dropped more than 25% since the summer, leading to speculation that OPEC nations would agree to cut the output ceiling to support prices, especially as some of the group’s members grow fearful of the likely hit to their government budgets.
Many officials said they were unlikely to act now—with prices of Brent crude still about $80 a barrel—but a drop toward $70 a barrel would prompt action.
Both major crude benchmarks fell Thursday. Mr. el-Badri’s statements were overshadowed by reports that Libyan officials expect production at the country’s biggest field, El Sharara, to restart soon, recovering quickly from a rebel attack the day before. The Brent crude futures contract, the international benchmark, fell 9 cents to $82.86 a barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, Nymex crude futures, fell 77 cents to $77.91 a barrel.
Analysts and brokers said the market appeared to be reserving judgment on the comments by Mr. el-Badri until the group’s Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna to see if the organization takes any official action to reduce output and shore up prices.
“Libya has done the cut for us,” said one OPEC official, who had previously advocated a reduction of 500,000 barrels a day.
Even so, OPEC itself expects its output to fall over the medium term as oil supply grows elsewhere, mainly thanks to rising U.S. shale-oil production. In its annual energy outlook, OPEC said its crude production would fall by 1.8 million barrels a day by the end of 2017 to 28.2 million barrels a day from 30 million barrels a day this year.