OPEC's oil demand growth forecasts for 2021 remains unchanged

Baku, July 16, AZERTAC

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) keeps its forecast for world oil demand unchanged with 6 million barrel per day and total global demand reaching 96.6 million barrel per day, according to OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report on Thursday, Anadolu Agency reports.

The total demand forecast was revised down amid slower than anticipated demand in the main OECD consuming countries but this was counterbalanced by better-than-expected data from OECD Americas in 2021, which is now projected to continue through the third quarter of this year, said in the report.

Positive developments on the increasing mobility and the pace of vaccine programs impact the demand while COVID-19 variants create uncertainties for the world oil demand.

The report further stressed a tightening of oil markets although investors remain optimistic about a further oil demand recovery during the summer holiday season.

In the OECD region, oil demand is anticipated to rise by 2.7 million barrel per day to reach 44.7 million barrel per day of total demand. This is nearly 3 million barrel per day lower than total demand in 2019, mainly due to a limited recovery in transportation fuel, especially jet fuel, the report said.

OECD Americas demand is anticipated to rise the most in 2021, led by the US on the back of recovering gasoline and diesel demand.

In the non-OECD region, oil demand is anticipated to rise by 3.3 million barrel per day to reach 51.9 million barrel per day of total demand in 2021. That is nearly 0.4 million barrel per day lower than 2019 total demand, despite expectations of fully recovering demand in China and India.

"A steady increase in industrial and transportation fuel demand supported by recovering economic activity is projected to boost demand in 2021," the report said.

Global oil production in June increased by 1.1 million barrel per day compared to the previous month to average 94.5 million barrel per day.

The report shows that OPEC crude oil production increased by 590,000 barrel per day month-over-month to an average of 26 million barrel per day, while the share of OPEC crude out of total global production rose to 27.6% in June, marking a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous month.

Crude oil output increased mainly in Saudi Arabia while production decreased primarily in Iraq.

Non-OPEC liquids production in June increased by 520,000 barrel per day compared with the previous month to an average of 68.46 million barrel per day.

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