Kazakhstan forecasts inflation at 7.5-9.5% in 2027
Baku, October 14, AZERTAC
Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister - National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin presented the country’s socio-economic development forecast for 2027-2029 during a plenary session of the Qurultay, Qazinform News Agency reported.
According to Zhumangarin, the forecast was prepared taking into account current economic conditions, projections by international financial institutions for global economic growth, and external market trends.
He said that the IMF projects the global economy to grow by 3% this year and 3.4% in 2027.
Despite the improved global outlook, economic growth is expected to slow in Kazakhstan’s key trading partner countries.
He added international organizations and major investment banks have also revised down their oil price forecasts for 2027, with the consensus forecast lowered to 70.3 US dollars per barrel. The analysis considered three development scenarios based on external conditions.
The optimistic scenario expects oil prices to reach 85 US dollars per barrel, with average annual economic growth projected at 5.9%.
The pessimistic scenario assumes oil prices of 50 US dollars per barrel, with GDP growth averaging 3.2%.
The baseline scenario assumes an oil price of 70 US dollars per barrel. Under this scenario, Kazakhstan’s average annual real GDP growth is projected to exceed 5% between 2027 and 2029. Nominal GDP is forecast to increase from 199.3 trillion tenge in 2027 to 245 trillion tenge in 2029.
The Government forecasts inflation at 7.5-9.5% in 2027 and 6-8% in 2028-2029.
Primarily, non-oil sectors are expected to fuel economic growth. Manufacturing is projected to outpace mining, with metallurgy, machinery manufacturing, building materials, chemicals, and food production making the largest contributions.
Agriculture is also expected to remain a key growth driver, with annual growth averaging at least 5%.
In construction, growth is forecast to increase from 16% in 2027 to 17.3% in 2029, supported by infrastructure projects in transport, logistics, energy, water systems, housing, utilities, and social services.
The services sector is expected to maintain strong momentum, with trade growing by an average of 5.7% annually, transportation and warehousing by 10.4%, and information and communications by 9.2%.
Goods exports are projected to rise from 82.8 billion US dollars in 2027 to 88.5 billion US dpollars in 2029, while imports are expected to increase from 80.5 billion US dollars to 88.4 billion US dollars over the same period.
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