Pain at the pump – one oil shock, very different bills
Baku, November 3, AZERTAC
Fuel prices have risen unevenly across economies. Households with the least to spare face the steepest increases – and the hardest choices, according to UNCTAD.
An oil shock doesn’t arrive at every petrol station with the same price tag. Between 23 February and 31 August 2026, for example, diesel prices jumped about 83% in Nigeria compared to 9% in Ireland. Gasoline prices rose by about 51% in Myanmar compared to 3% in Sweden.
For households, the impact goes beyond the petrol station. More expensive fuel can raise the cost of getting to work and the prices of everyday goods, leaving less money for other essential items.
UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) examines the ripple effect of these pressures in its Trade and Development Report 2026. International oil prices set the shock in motion. Domestic policies and reliance on imported energy help determine how it spreads.
The Middle East conflict disrupted energy supplies and sent oil prices soaring. Brent, a global oil benchmark, rose above $120 a barrel, fell towards $70 in June, then climbed above $100 again. For businesses buying fuel, the drop in costs was short-lived.
By September, futures contracts for delivery through the end of 2026 were also priced above $100 a barrel – more than $30 above pre-conflict levels, the report notes.
Futures prices suggest oil will stay expensive through the end of 2026, potentially keeping fuel and transport bills high for businesses and households.
Developing economies faced the steepest fuel-price increases, the report finds. Diesel prices rose by more than 50% in 18 of the 25 economies shown, in dollar terms. They increased by 82.7% in Nigeria, 73.6% in Lebanon and 66.7% in Peru.
Gasoline prices also rose sharply. Myanmar recorded the largest increase shown, at 50.7%. In Nigeria, gasoline rose by 48.1% – a substantial increase, though much smaller than the rise in diesel.
Higher fuel prices can reach households through their shopping bills, too. Diesel powers trucks that deliver food and other goods. If businesses pass on higher transport costs, even people who never buy fuel can end up paying more.
Economies that depend heavily on imported fuel face an added strain when oil prices rise: buying the energy they need becomes more expensive.
Net fuel imports were equivalent to a quarter of Cabo Verde’s GDP and nearly a fifth of Lebanon’s in 2023. In Mauritania and Liberia, they exceeded 15%. These figures measure spending on fuel imports minus earnings from fuel exports, relative to each economy’s output.
A higher fuel bill leaves less money for other imports, including food, medicines and equipment. Governments with already stretched budgets also have less room to shield households from rising costs.
Earlier research on developing economies cited by the report estimated that a 25-US-cent rise in fuel prices per litre could reduce household purchasing power by more than 5% on average. Poorer households have less savings to draw on, leaving them with harder choices over essential spending.
Reducing exposure to future shocks requires longer-term changes. The report calls for more varied energy supplies and investment in affordable renewables. It notes that, in more than 90% of cases, renewables are less expensive than the cheapest new fossil-fuel alternatives for generating electricity.
Those investments take time. For households already struggling, the immediate question is what to cut when the next fuel bill arrives.
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