Azerbaijan's multi-vector approach strengthens its position in implementing transport projects – Interview with Thomas de Waal
Baku, May 15, AZERTAC
After the Second Karabakh War, the South Caucasus entered a period of profound geopolitical transformation. A region long associated primarily with instability is now increasingly viewed as a space of emerging transport routes, energy security, and strategic connectivity between Europe and Asia. Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan has significantly strengthened its position not only as an energy partner, but also as a key logistical and political center of the region.
The development of the Middle Corridor, the advancement of major infrastructure projects, the deepening of cooperation with Central Asian countries, Türkiye, the European Union, and the United States, as well as Baku’s growing role in shaping a new architecture of Eurasian connectivity, are turning Azerbaijan into one of the principal geopolitical actors in the South Caucasus. At the same time, the ongoing peace process between Baku and Yerevan remains a crucial factor that will determine the future of the entire regional security and economic integration system.
AZERTAC presents an interview with British journalist, writer, and analyst Thomas de Waal, who specializes in the South Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and the post-Soviet space. He is widely regarded as one of the leading Western experts on Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. He is currently affiliated with Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he served for many years as a senior fellow focusing on the Caucasus and Eastern Europe.
— Azerbaijan is increasingly positioning itself not only as a regional energy player, but also as a transport hub connecting Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East. How could a successful peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan — for which all the necessary conditions now appear to exist — affect Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and geo-economic role in Eurasia?
— There is indeed a genuine opportunity today for Armenia and Azerbaijan to conclude a peace agreement. Over the past year, a number of positive developments have taken place, giving grounds for cautious optimism. Importantly, the sides managed to agree on the text of the peace agreement in a bilateral format, without the active involvement of external mediators, who often pursue their own interests in the South Caucasus.
In fact, the two countries no longer have fundamental disagreements over territorial issues, which significantly changes the entire regional dynamic. Additional momentum also came from the efforts of the administration of Donald Trump, which helped overcome the deadlock surrounding the route to Nakhchivan (Zangezur Corridor – ed.).
Moreover, both Armenian and Azerbaijani societies appear increasingly fatigued by decades of conflict. There is little desire today to return to confrontation. At the same time, it would be premature to say that the region has already entered a full-fledged era of peace. Rather, the South Caucasus is currently in an intermediate phase: the era of conflict has largely ended, but a stable peace has not yet been fully consolidated.
A peace agreement could significantly reshape the balance of power across the South Caucasus. As the region’s largest economy and the country with the most developed transport infrastructure, Azerbaijan has every opportunity to further strengthen its position as a key transit hub between Europe and Central Asia.
The decisive factor will be the implementation of infrastructure projects — particularly the TRIPP initiative (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – ed.). These projects could transform the South Caucasus into an integral part of a new Eurasian logistics system.
— Azerbaijan is actively promoting the Middle Corridor, developing infrastructure, and strengthening ties between Europe and Asia. Could Baku become the principal beneficiary of the new global competition over transport routes?
— Azerbaijan occupies an exceptionally advantageous geographical position and objectively remains one of Eurasia’s major transit hubs. This has become especially evident now that routes through Russia, Iran, and the Red Sea are facing serious restrictions and risks. Against this backdrop, the importance of the Middle Corridor has grown sharply. Baku invested in transport infrastructure at the right time, modernized railways, ports, and logistics capacities, placing the country today in a very strong position.
— In recent years, Baku has demonstrated a rare ability for the region to simultaneously maintain relations with Türkiye, Russia, the EU, the United States, and Central Asian countries. To what extent does such a multi-vector approach strengthen Azerbaijan’s position in the context of TRIPP and the peace process?
— Azerbaijan is indeed pursuing a highly flexible and pragmatic foreign policy. Baku has managed to maintain working relations simultaneously with Türkiye, Russia, the United States, the European Union, Israel, and the countries of Central Asia. For such a sensitive region, this represents a major diplomatic advantage.
It is precisely this multi-vector approach that strengthens Azerbaijan’s position in implementing transport projects, including TRIPP, while also enhancing its role as an important bridge between different centers of power.
Author – Tamilla Mammadova
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