Global warming likely to cross 1.5°C threshold in coming years – UNEP
Baku, September 3, AZERTAC
Global temperatures are likely to rise to more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years, intensifying climate risks, Kazinform News Agency reports.
The warning comes from a new report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), Limiting Overshoot, which identifies an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the best remaining option for limiting the magnitude and duration of warming above 1.5°C and eventually bringing temperatures back below the Paris Agreement target.
The most optimistic scenario examined in the report sees global warming peaking at 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, while most other scenarios project higher peaks.
Above 1.5°C, climate impacts and risks would intensify with every additional fraction of a degree and every year. These include intensified extreme weather, ecosystem losses and growing threats to Small Island Developing States and low-lying coastal cities.
The report also warns of severe damage to human health, food security, water supplies, nature, cities, infrastructure and economies. The likelihood of crossing irreversible climate tipping points would increase as temperatures remain higher for longer. These include the destabilization of major ice sheets, degradation of the Amazon rainforest and disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a system of currents that plays a key role in regulating the climate.
To limit the overshoot, UNEP calls for immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, on the path to net-zero emissions. Long-term net-negative emissions would then be needed to bring temperatures down, with carefully governed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) playing an essential role.
At the same time, countries need to strengthen adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability to current and future climate impacts. UNEP stressed that mitigation and adaptation should advance together and that solutions supporting both objectives, such as nature-based cooling, should be prioritized.
The report emphasizes that CDR must complement, rather than replace, sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. It can credibly contribute to bringing temperatures back below 1.5°C only if peak warming remains well below 2°C and residual emissions are reduced. Strong governance frameworks will also be needed to ensure responsible deployment and address environmental and equity concerns.
According to UNEP, strong political will, effective policies, inclusive governance, international cooperation and adequate financing will be essential. Countries with greater responsibility for climate change should act faster and with greater ambition.
Even if global temperatures eventually return below 1.5°C, some irreversible losses and permanently changed conditions are expected. Many communities could be forced to relocate or change their livelihoods, creating new challenges related to justice, political legitimacy and governance.
Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that a powerful El Niño event developing in the Pacific is part of a longer-term trend toward more frequent strong events linked to human-caused climate change.
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