‘Nagorno-Karabakh: more dangerous than ever’
Baku, January 25 (AZERTAC). English-language daily of Turkey, Today`s Zaman has published an article entitled ‘Nagorno-Karabakh: more dangerous than ever’. The following is the text of the artilce.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict represents the biggest threat to security in the South Caucasus. Karabakh is legally part of Azerbaijan (although since the beginning of the 19th century it had a predominantly ethnic Armenian population).
Karabakh has been under Armenian control since the 1988-1994 war, with seven surrounding Azerbaijani regions also occupied.
Peace negotiations, under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, have been ongoing for almost two decades. The two sides are currently negotiating a set of basic principles. The “principles” foresee the return to Azerbaijan of the seven territories surrounding Karabakh, the right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former place of residence, interim status for Karabakh that provides guarantees of security and self-governance, a land corridor linking Karabakh and Armenia, international security guarantees that would include a peacekeeping operation, and a future determination of Nagorno-Karabakh’s final legal status through “a legally binding expression of will.” While Azerbaijan states it has accepted the latest version of the basic principles, Armenia is still hesitating.
Armenia is also feeling buoyed up over the recent referendum determining the independence of South Sudan. It has given Yerevan increased confidence that the international community views the right of self-determination as more important than territorial integrity. With this, as well as the Kosovo example under their belt, there is increased hope that an independent Nagorno-Karabakh is becoming closer. However, Sudan is not Azerbaijan. Not only are the two conflicts very different, but, in order for such an outcome, you need to have the backing of the world’s greatest power -- namely, the US. The US has political interests in an independent Southern Sudan (not least large oil and gas resources). And while the Armenian lobby in Washington is strong, Azerbaijan is a crucial partner in the energy sphere and the fight against terrorism. I doubt Washington will be rushing to recognize Karabakh’s independence.
Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly frustrated. While Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is recognized by the international community, including the UN, NATO and the EU, and there are four UN resolutions requesting Armenian withdrawal, it all just remains on paper. With peace talks seemingly endless, Baku believes the international community should place more pressure on Armenia to accept the basic principles rather than allowing Armenia to “drag out” the talks as long as possible by returning to issues that were previously agreed upon.
In a speech earlier this month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev repeated that Baku would never allow the establishment of a second Armenian state on its lands. He went on to talk about the strength of the Azerbaijani armed forces and that Azerbaijan’s defense spending will exceed $3 billion this year.
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