WTO: AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040
Baku, September 23, AZERTAC
The World Trade Organization, in its new World Trade Report 2025, says artificial intelligence could reshape the global economy. According to its projections, by 2040 overall trade in goods and services may grow by 34% to 37%, while global GDP could rise by 12 to 13 percent, Kazinform News Agency correspondent reports.
The fastest expansion is expected in digitally delivered services, including AI tools themselves, which in WTO models increase by nearly 42%.
The report stresses that these gains are not guaranteed. Much will depend on investment in digital infrastructure, the openness of markets, and the ability of countries to
The WTO modeled several scenarios depending on how quickly lower- and middle-income countries expand their digital infrastructure.
In the baseline case, advanced economies see the largest benefits, with incomes rising by about 14%. Middle-income countries are projected to grow by 11%, while low-income countries gain only 8%.
If poorer economies accelerate infrastructure development, their results improve significantly. Their gains could reach 11%, and under a scenario of widespread AI adoption, as much as 15%. In that case, growth for advanced and middle-income countries would also level out at around 14%.
To assess the landscape, the WTO created the AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), covering 108 economies. It measures how far trade policies either support or restrict access to AI services, goods, and cross-border data flows.
The study found that middle-income countries tend to impose the strictest barriers, mainly on digital services and data movement.
Tariffs on AI-related goods also vary widely. In some low-income countries they reach as high as 45%, effectively slowing access to new technologies.
The report highlights data as the key resource driving AI. Its analysis shows a clear link between digital services trade and the cross-border exchange of knowledge.
A 10% increase in trade in digital services is associated with a 2.6% rise in cross-border references to AI patents. At the same time, fragmented rules on data flows risk slowing progress. They can limit access to cloud services and training datasets, both essential for building AI ecosystems.
AI adoption is expected to bring moderate shifts in employment. Real wages are projected to rise across all worker groups, while the gap between high- and low-skilled employees may narrow by 3 to 4 percent.
Job growth, however, will not be even. Employment for low-skilled workers could increase by 3 to 4 percent, compared with just 1 to 2 percent for medium- and high-skilled workers.
Many advanced economies have announced large-scale plans to build data centers and AI infrastructure. Poorer countries, however, struggle to support such projects because of limited resources.
The energy demands are also immense. Major AI hubs can consume 100 megawatts or more, roughly equal to the annual electricity needs of about 100,000 households.
Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that World merchandise trade projected to grow 0.9% in 2025.
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