Iran talks: How close is a final nuclear deal?
Berlin, May 15 (AZERTAC). So far the nuclear talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council along with Germany - the so-called P5+1 - have been, as one insider put it, "about clearing the ground".
The ambitious goal is to get this done before the end of July. This is when the six-month interim agreement expires.
Three months of intensive discussions lie ahead.
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“What's yet to come is the bulk of incriminating allegations concerning nuclear weapons-related research”
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
If the clock runs out and things are going well, then an extension is of course possible.
But alternatively, if a deal is not in sight, then the negotiating track may have run its course and the consequences could ultimately be very serious indeed.
Experts and diplomats are unanimous in their view that so far the negotiations have gone surprisingly well.
As nuclear expert Mark Hibbs of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace notes: "The very fact of the absence of unauthorized leaks to the press about difficulties encountered in the negotiation, and the control that the negotiators have exerted on what we know via gatekeepers, are positive signs that there is political will on both sides to see this through to the end."
Mark Fitzpatrick, the director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, puts it this way: "So-far, so good. The interim agreement is being honored and talks on a comprehensive deal are exuding good vibes.
"All parties," he adds, "are behaving responsibly."
Mr Hibbs notes that from the outset "because a big challenge was mutual lack of trust, the road map for this negotiation began with confidence-building measures aimed at picking low-hanging fruit.
"They're picking it, but the hardest part may be the last, and there are some potential show-stoppers ahead," he says, with emphasis.
"Negotiators," Mr Hibbs adds, "still have to deal with the legacy of Iran's clandestine activities which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) believes was related to a nuclear weapons option.
"They will have to agree on how much of a nuclear programme Iran can have at the end of the day and for how long it will be circumscribed, and how sanctions-lifting will be matched with remaining steps by Iran."
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