Lightning and wildfires: How Israeli AI research is changing disaster prediction
Baku, April 3, AZERTAC
Israeli researchers have developed an artificial intelligence model that can predict lightning-induced wildfires with unprecedented accuracy, potentially transforming wildfire forecasting and disaster management., according to The Press Service of Israel (TPS-IL).Essentially, this is the first time an AI model has demonstrated such high precision in forecasting lightning-triggered wildfires on a global scale, they announced on Thursday.
The model, created by scientists at Bar-Ilan University in collaboration with researchers from Ariel and Tel Aviv Universities, demonstrated an accuracy rate exceeding 90% in predicting where and when lightning strikes could ignite wildfires. Dr. Oren Glickman and Dr. Assaf Shmuel from Bar-Ilan University’s Department of Computer Science spearheaded the project, utilizing seven years of high-resolution satellite data, along with environmental variables such as vegetation, weather patterns, and topography.
Their findings were recently published in the peer-reviewed Scientific Reports journal.
Unlike traditional fire danger indices that rely on regional and often limited data, the AI model incorporates a vast array of global datasets to more accurately assess the likelihood of wildfires triggered by lightning. The model’s effectiveness was tested using wildfire data from 2021.
Extreme weather conditions, including hotter and drier climates, shifting ecosystems, and more frequent lightning storms, have created conditions where wildfires can ignite and spread rapidly. Lightning, in particular, poses a unique challenge as it can spark fires in remote regions where they may smolder undetected for days before erupting into large-scale infernos.
As research continues, the team hopes to refine and expand the model’s capabilities, working towards a future where AI-driven forecasting can provide real-time wildfire risk assessments.
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