'Attempt on Paruyr Hayrikyan shows instability of Armenian political system'
Baku, February 4 (AZERTAC). The attempt on Paruyr Hayrikyan can be regarded as a kind of warning against "excessive activity" of presidential candidates after the election.
The Armenian-American community and the State Department are with concern following the events in Yerevan, leading expert of the Heritage Foundation on Russia, Eurasia and international energy policy Ariel Cohen writes in his blog.
The author notes in his post that the Central Election Committee of Armenia is preparing to delay the presidential elections to be held on 18 February because of the attempt on one of the eight candidates for the highest office of the state, Paruyr Hayrikian.
"The attempt on Hayrikiyan was committed on Thursday late evening. He received a gunshot wound to the shoulder. A criminal case has been launched on the attempt, and the Central Election Committee of Armenia has announced its readiness to postpone the elections in accordance with the constitution, so that Hayrikyan could participate in it," emphasizes the expert.
He regretted that the attempt on Hayrikyan demonstrates the instability of Armenia's political system and the role of violence in it.
"It is not the first event in the political life of Armenia, when the leaders of the country have to pay for office with health and even life. In 1999, the terrorist attack in the parliament killed Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, National Assembly Speaker Karen Demirchyan and several MPs. Many were wounded. Those responsible for the attack have not been found, and to this day it is not clear to whom and why it was needed," the author of the blog notes.
Touching upon the the attempt on Hayrikyan, Cohen refers to the assumption of Head of the Armenian Presidential Administration Vigen Sargsyan that the attempt on Hayrikyan has "political implications".
He also notes that the deputy speaker of parliament, spokesman for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia Eduard Sharmazanov called the incident "a provocation against the holding of democratic, free and transparent elections".
According to the expert, Paruyr Hayrikyan, a former dissident and now a leader of the National Self-Determination party, was not a favourite of the race: he was predicted to gain only 4% of the vote. He emphasizes that it's the fourth time that Hayrikyan's runs for president of Armenia.
However, in the last month of the race Hayrikyan became too active and visible in the political life of the country, and meanwhile he did make a statement that could not please his political opponents," the analyst writes in his blog.
He recalls that recently the candidate held a three-day hunger strike, supporting a similar action of another presidential candidate Andreas Ghukasyan, speaking for the exit of the current president, the leader of the Republican Party of Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan, from the race.
"Later, three of the eight candidates registered in the CEC - Hayrikyan, former Foreign Minister Raffi Hovannisian and Hrant Bagratyan - issued a joint statement in which they raised a number of demands to the authorities. In particular, they urged to publish the lists of citizens who are outside country for the last six months and unable to vote. The submission of such lists separately from the list of the direct participants in elections, according to three candidates, helps eliminate cases of massive ballot box stuffing," Cohen emphasizes.
The author writes that, in addition, the three candidates for the highest office in the country declared the possibility their unification to participate in the elections. Moreover, the main representative of this political coalition was to be exactly Hayrikyan. Analyst quotes one of the candidates for President of Armenia Arman Melikyan who said that "the triumvirate gives reason to think. If before each of the candidates could be seen in the political arena separately, then from that moment it is not possible".
According to the expert, in theory, such a decision could jeopardize the electoral victory of the current president.
"Or, more likely, the union of supporters of three presidential candidates would be a good basis for anti-government rallies after almost inevitable victory of Sargsyan, in which, apparently, is the meaning of unity," the analyst suggests.
In addition, the author of the blog cites the opinion of sociologists, according to which the current President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan will win a landslide victory in the elections in the first round. Thus, according to the poll of Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA), conducted on 15-23 January, Sargsyan can win 66% of votes.
In this case, according to the poll, Raffi Hovannisian will collect 10% of the vote, and Grant Bagratyan and Paruyr Hayrikyan - 4%.
"Given these facts, it is possible that the attempt on Hayrikian, which, apparently, was not intended to deprive him of life, can be regarded as a kind of warning against "excessive activity "of the candidates and their supporters after the elections," said Cohen.
According to him, the United States, expecting the elections to be democratic, hopes that the perpetrators of the attempt and its customers will be found and punished.
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