“ON ENERGY, AZERIS PLAY EUROPE AND RUSSIA AGAINST THE MIDDLE
The following is excerpts from the article “On energy, Azeris play Europe and Russia against the middle” by Celestine Bohlen published in the Tuesday edition of the International Herald Tribune:
It is boom time in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan: the skyline is dense with cranes and high-rise buildings, and the streets of the port city on the Caspian Sea are clogged with luxury shops and traffic.
Oil revenue has fueled the country`s growth, and even as prices have plummeted, Azerbaijan`s energy resources remain a valuable prize. Evidence of this is the tug-of-war between Russia and Europe over natural gas from the next phase of a project that`s expected to at least double current production when it moves from the planning stage to completion.
“As always, Azerbaijan is trying to find common ground with all sides,” said Fariz Ismailzade, director of the Advanced Foreign Service Program at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy in Baku.
Over the past two months, Russia and the United States, acting with the Europeans, have stepped up their attentions to this nation of 8.5 million people.
In addition to selling its gas, Azerbaijan wants to parlay the international interest into the resolution of its Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, occupied by Armenia. It inched toward that goal in a meeting on Nov. 2, where the two sides agreed to resolve the dispute under Russian, U.S. and French mediation, easing tensions in the South Caucasus after two Azerbaijani oil-export routes were disrupted by the Georgian war.
“This is our neighborhood, and everything that happens here worries us,” says Novruz Mammadov, head of Presidential Administration`s foreign relations department.
Given its strategic location between the Caspian and Black seas, Azerbaijan is used to being in the middle. Since becoming independent in 1991, it has sought to minimize reliance on Soviet-era pipelines that go through Russia, a major trading partner and home to two million Azeris. At the same time, it has maintained neighborly relations.
“We have a strategic partnership with Russia and with the U.S., and we don`t see any contradiction,” said Khazar Ibrahim, spokesman for the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry.
Vice President Dick Cheney visited Baku in September, followed a month later by the U.S. deputy secretary of state, John Negroponte. In between, Aliyev, 46, was invited to Moscow for a one-day visit with President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia. The European Union`s energy commissioner, Andris Piebalgs, is due in Baku this month.
The United States and the European Union want the new supplies sent directly to Europe through the proposed Nabucco pipeline, at the center of the region`s efforts to reduce dependence on Russia.
Azerbaijan has yet to decide when it will develop Shah Deniz II and says it is waiting for the Europeans to make an offer. Azerbaijan can bide its time, Mammadov said.
In trying to strike a balance between East and West, Aliyev is following in the footsteps of his father, whom he succeeded as president in 2003.
Heydar Aliyev played a key role in securing pipeline that bypasses Russia, carrying Azerbaijani oil from the Caspian region through Georgia to Turkey`s Mediterranean coast.
Operated by the London-based BP, Europe`s second-largest oil company, the pipeline now exports a million barrels of oil a day on average - roughly 1 percent of the world`s supply.
The International Monetary Fund predicts Azerbaijan`s gross domestic product will total $53.2 billion this year, compared with $8.6 billion in 2004.
For now, though, the signs of oil wealth are everywhere in Baku.
Oil has always been key to the fortunes of Baku.
Azerbaijan has been able to leverage some of the interest in its energy resources to try to end its own “frozen conflict” over Nagorno-Karabakh, which has cost it 20 percent of its territory.
Medvedev arranged the Nov. 2 meeting in Moscow at which Aliyev and the Armenian president, Serzh Sargsyan, agreed to seek a resolution - signaling Russia`s willingness to play mediator in this dispute.”
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