Climate change triggers heat waves more frequent and more extreme
Baku, July 26, AZERTAC
The extreme heat wave that hit Europe, parts of Asia, and North America in July 2023 is considered impossible to occur without the influence of climate change. Scientists also predict that heat waves will occur more frequently and become hotter, according to Kompas.id.
This conclusion was conveyed by scientists who are members of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) in a rapid attribution study released on Tuesday (25/7/2023). The WWA study was conducted by seven researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in the Netherlands, UK, and the United States with the first author Mariam Zachariah from the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London.
After the Earth's temperature broke records since June, in July 2023, some areas of Southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico, and China experienced severe heatwaves with temperatures reaching above 45 degrees Celsius. This phenomenon caused heat warnings, forest fires, hospital care related to heatwaves, and deaths.
In this report, researchers explain that El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon, may have contributed to additional heat waves in certain regions. However, scientists warn that heat waves like this would not occur without climate change.
They stated that heat waves will become more frequent and extreme if emissions are not immediately stopped and reduced to net zero. The study also found that climate change makes heat waves at least 50 times more likely to occur in China.
Friederike Otto, a co-author of the study from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, said the results of the attribution study were not surprising. “The world has not stopped burning fossil fuels, the climate continues to warm, and heatwaves continue to become more extreme. It's that simple," he said.
Otto added that this heat wave is not evidence of "uncontrollable warming" or "climate collapse". He still believes we have time to secure a safe and healthy future, but we must immediately stop burning fossil fuels and invest in reducing vulnerabilities.
"If not, tens of thousands of people will continue to die from heat every year. It is very important for the government to make laws for eliminating fossil fuels at the climate conference or COP this year," he said.
Meanwhile, Sjoukje Philip, a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said, "This planet is not heating up evenly. Climate scientists are working to understand the complex relationship between global and regional average temperature increases."
According to him, this research shows the significant impact of rapid warming rates on local temperatures in Europe. "This underscores the urgent need for Europe to continue taking adaptation and mitigation measures," he said.
The greenhouse gas emissions are considered to cause hotter heat waves than they should, resulting in temperatures in Europe being 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter, 2 degrees Celsius hotter in North America, and 1 degree Celsius hotter in China.
Researchers have stated that unless the world quickly stops burning fossil fuels, heat waves will become more common and the world will experience even hotter and longer heat waves. Heat waves like the recent ones will occur every 2-5 years if the temperature in the world is 2 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial climate.
The data also shows that without climate change as a result of human activities, such heat events would occur very rarely. In China, a heatwave would only occur once in 250 years. As for maximum heat such as in July 2023, it would be almost impossible to occur in regions such as the United States, Mexico, and Southern Europe if humans did not warm the Earth by burning fossil fuels.
Julie Arrighi, Director of the Climate Center at the Red Cross and Red Crescent, said, "Heat is one of the deadliest types of disasters."
According to Arrighi, we need a cultural change in how we think about extreme heat. "Extreme heat is deadly and rapidly increasing. It is vital to improve warning systems, heat action plans, and investments in long-term adaptation measures. This includes urban planning and strengthening critical systems' resilience such as health, electricity, water, and transportation," he said.
"To save lives during extreme heat, we need to take care of the most vulnerable. This includes the elderly, people with health conditions, the homeless, and communities with limited access to cool spaces that can be a lifeline during extreme heat," he said."
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